I saw this word today on one of the many financial sites documenting Apple’s steep decline. UPOD=”Under Promise and Over Deliver” This is the financial market way of saying “Surprise and Delight.” Basically, Apple has often set guidance low, then they over deliver with great results. The market gets delighted and up goes the share price. Apple has been practicing UPOD in both the financial market and in their products. The flip side is if you stop over delivering, you pay the price.
We saw that in action right after Steve’s keynote with so many people expecting something revolutionary on the heels of the iPhone last year. And yesterday, in spite of Apple’s best quarter ever their lowered projections spooked the market, already spooked by other fears. Today was bloody – at one point Apple lost nearly 25% of its value. In one day! That’s just crazy. Apple is still defying logic, growing market share, slamming out great new products and raking in huge profits. But their iPod business isn’t generating uPod any longer.
But don’t worry, Apple’s business has always been cyclical; intentionally so. As the iPod business slows (this happens in any maturing market) you’ll see Apple focus on the Mac and the business market. And with the iPhone still in it’s infancy, (not to mention Apple TV) Apple has lots of engines available to deliver uPod.
Apple is almost always punished by the market in some way. Most people think that if they don’t announce a Mac that now walks and talks, they must be out of ideas. It took 3 years of R&D to get the iPhone to the point where they announced it 6 months before it launched. What else do you think Apple has been working on in its labs?
This is just short sighted market manipulation. Anyone with cash should be buying APPL right now. However, I remember when Apple was leap years ahead of MS and the stock was at $12 a share. Financial people generally don’t get the zeitgeist of Apple. We know they will continue to bring great new products to the market for a long time. Even the ones that have marginal success (Apple TV) are simply revised and updated to now be possible paradigm shifters.
I’m surprised it took this long for the markets to see that Apple always understates and the over delivers. Perhaps they adjusted guidance because they have an iPhone v2 in the works? And, even with lower guidance, does anyone want to bet against them selling 10M uits before Xmas 08? Like everything else, perspective shows us that this is just a blip and not the 7th sign of the end of the world.
At least that’s my 1¢ (revised down from 2¢) due to market conditions.